Forecasting Public Debt Dynamics: A Beginner's Guide

Understanding the trajectory of public debt is crucial for economic stability and sound policymaking. This course equips you with the essential knowledge and practical skills to analyze and project government debt, a vital capability for anyone interested in economic policy. By the end of this course, you will be able to construct and interpret public debt projection models, enabling you to assess fiscal sustainability and the potential impact of various policy decisions. What you'll learn: * Understand the fundamental concepts of public debt, its components, and common metrics. * Learn to identify and analyze key macro-fiscal variables that drive public debt dynamics. * Apply structured frameworks to build basic public debt projection models. * Explore modern approaches to scenario analysis and sensitivity testing in debt forecasting. * Interpret the results of debt dynamics models to assess fiscal sustainability and policy implications. * Practice evaluating the impact of different fiscal policy choices on future debt paths. This course begins with essential terminology and economic principles, gradually advancing to practical steps for constructing and analyzing debt projection models, including discussions on data considerations and model limitations. This course is designed for absolute beginners with no prior experience in public debt analysis or economic modeling. Begin your journey to understanding and forecasting public debt dynamics today.